Written by James Novak, @avengerjr28
Saturday was a day filled with heavy favorites on the betting board. Depending on when and where you placed your bets, there could have been as many as eight favorites on Saturday that had a money line of at least -200. Of those eight heavy favorites, five covered their money line and run line bets, while the other three lost their games. Sunday looks to be a much more even day, as there are only currently two teams on the board with a -200 money line or higher. Here are four money line bets that can provide you some good value on Sunday.
Milwaukee Brewers (-145) @ San Francisco, 4:05 EST Start Time
On Saturday, the Brewers dropped their second straight game to the Giants. After losing 8-7 to the Giants yesterday afternoon, it looked like the Brewers were not going to lose any ground in the Central. The Dodgers took a 1-0 lead into the ninth inning, when they handed the game over to Kenley Jansen. After Anthony Rizzo hit a two run homer in the ninth inning, Pedro Strop nailed down the game and the Cubs stole a very important game from the Dodgers. This erased the Brewers lead in the division, as the Brewers and Cubs are now tied for first place once again atop the Central Division.
Although the Giants are riding a four game winning streak, it is hard to imagine the Milwaukee Brewers going into Oracle Park and getting swept. The Brewers will send Chase Anderson to the mound on Sunday to avoid the sweep. Anderson and his 3.80 ERA will square off against Jeff Samardzija and his 3.72 ERA. In three career starts at Oracle, Anderson is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA. Samardzija has only won one of his previous five starts, and several Brewers have very good career numbers against Samardzija. Christian Yelich is 6 for 16 in his career against Samardzija, Mike Moustakas is 4 for 12, Ryan Braun is 11 for 26, Yasmani Grandal is 4 for 8, and Lorenzo Cain is 4 for 10. Bet the brewers with confidence today.
Colorado Rockies (-148) vs. San Diego Padres, 3:10 EST start
The Rockies and Padres have been lighting up the scoreboard since Thursday evening. The previous three games of the series have been scores of 9-6, 16-12, and 14-8. Both teams will be looking to their starting pitchers today to give their bullpens some much needed rest. In today’s pitching match-up, the Rockies send rookie Peter Lambert to the mound to square off against Nick Margevicius for the Padres. The edge definitely goes to the Rockies, who are looking to take three out of four from the Padres.
The sample size on Peter Lambert is very small, as he has only started two games in the majors, both of them against the Cubs. In those two starts, however, he has given up two runs in 12 innings of work (1.50 ERA). The sample size of Nick Margevicius is larger, as he is 2-6 on the season with a ERA of 5.02. In his two starts against the Rockies this season, Margevicius’ stat line is not pretty. In his nine innings of work against the Rockies, he has allowed 15 hits and 10 runs. It is apparent that today will be another “Rocky” start for Margevicius, so bet the Rockies with confidence today.
St. Louis Cardinals (-120) @ New York Mets, 1:10 EST start
The Cardinals and Mets are wrapping up a four game set in New York on Sunday afternoon. Unlike the first three games in the series, this has the potential to be more of a pitchers’ duel as two hot pitchers will be squaring off in the series finale. The Cardinals send Dakota Hudson to the mound, who is unbeaten in his last six starts, and is 3-0 with a 2.39 ERA during those starts. The Mets send Jason Vargas to the hill, who has a 2.20 ERA in his previous eight starts (the first of which came against the Cardinals).
When a pitching match-up like this presents itself, it is easy to understand why this game’s money line is close to even money. The statistics show, however, that this late run by the 36-year-old Jason Vargas may be a statistical anomaly. Vargas has started 30 games for the Mets, and in the first 22 of them, he posted an ERA of 6.32. His career numbers in his six appearances against the Cardinals are also less than stellar. He has posted a 1-2 record with a 4.99 ERA. With a hot young pitcher on the mound for the Cardinals, and a Mets pitcher who has been pitching over his head, trust St. Louis today to get the win.
Miami Marlins (+118) vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates, 1:10 EST start
In a series that does not stand out to people looking at current playoff contenders, the Marlins host the Pirates for the final game of a three game set. The Marlins send youngster Sandy Alcantara to the mound to grab the series win today, as he squares off against Chris Archer of the Pirates. Today’s pitching match-up contains two pitchers whose careers may be going in opposite directions.
Sandy Alcantara is part of a Marlins staff that seems to be getting better and better by the week. Alcantara’s pitching line for the season illustrates this trend, even though his 3-6 record may not show it. In four of his previous five starts, he has allowed one earned run or less, including a complete game shutout against the Mets, and a seven inning one-run gem at Miller Park against the Brewers. Alcantara has been trending upwards lately, but will his offense be able to provide him some run support?
Enter Chris Archer into the discussion. This is not the Chris Archer we remember during his prime in Tampa Bay. He has struggled severely since arriving in Pittsburgh, and this year has shown how much of a struggle it has been. Archer currently sports an ERA of 5.73 and has given up at least four runs in five of his last seven starts. He is also currently tied for the National League lead in home runs allowed with 16. Archer, like the entire Pirates staff this year, is trending in the wrong direction. If you are looking for a little risk today, bet the Marlins with confidence at home.
Enjoy your full slate of baseball games today, and Happy Father’s Day to all fathers out there today!
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